The Final Stop on the Road to Istanbul

The second legs of the Champions League semi-finals take place on Tuesday and Wednesday. Will it be an all-English final, not if Real Madrid and PSG have anything to do with it. Let’s take a look at the two games and some betting tips.

Tuesday 4 May – Manchester City v PSG (8pm KO)

Ever since the takeover of the club, the dream has been to win the Champions League. No team mentioned because that statement applies to both Manchester City and PSG. All that money spent on players has produced just one appearance in a Champions League final. That figure will be doubled this week.

Manchester City are yet to get to a final but have a 2-1 lead from the first leg. They had to come from behind to get that win but those two away goals could be vital. Thinking negatively for a moment, a 1-0 loss to the French champions would still see City through to the final. That’s not quite how Pep Guardiola works though.

City have played 11 games in this season’s Champions League. Ten have been won, the other a goalless draw at Porto in the group stage. Their last home loss in this competition was to Lyon in 2018. You have to go back five years since they last failed to score in a home Champions League match. However, five of the last seven at the Etihad have seen both teams score.
Impressive statistics but PSG cannot be written off in any way. Like a few top teams in Europe, their home form has slipped this season. On their travels though, the French side have won away Champions League games at Manchester United, Barcelona and Bayern Munich, scoring ten goals in those matches.

PSG know they have to score at least twice in 90 minutes to have any chance of progressing. They are more than capable of doing that but what gaps will be left at the back? A bet on both teams to score looks a winning one here. That has odds of 4/7 at William Hill.

Wednesday 5 May – Chelsea v Real Madrid (8pm KO)

This tie is finely balanced at 1-1 after the first leg in Spain. Chelsea will be delighted to have returned to England with the scores level and an away goal. The weekend saw them beat Fulham 2-0 at home, extending their unbeaten run to five games since a loss to Porto in the last sixteen of this competition.

Recent games have seen their German duo come to life. Havertz scored both goals against Fulham and even Timo Werner has scored for them. There might not be too many goals in this second leg. Each of Chelsea’s last six matches have had under 2.5 goals scored in them. Of the last 11 played at Stamford Bridge, only the loss to West Brom has had more than 2.5 goals scored in them.
Real Madrid would have loved to win the home leg, especially after taking the lead. They haven’t lost since January and are on an unbeaten run of 19 games, though only two of the last six have been won.

Before that, they head to London looking to knock out a second English club this season. Only two of their last six away Champions League games have ended in victory with one goal in the last three. Six of their last eight played in this competition have had under 2.5 goals.

This is an intriguing tie, a lot will depend on who scores first, if anyone. A bet on under 2.5 goals has odds of 4/6 at Bet365.