A lot can change in a short time in British politics. Who would have imagined that at the start of October, Sir Keir Starmer would be the odds on favourite to be the Prime Minister after the next General Election?
The Labour leader is now 1/2 at Betway to be moving into 10 Downing Street. He’s even shorter with some other bookmakers. Labour are now 4/9 at BetVictor to win the most seats at the next General Election and only 5/4 at William Hill to gain an overall majority.
Those who took higher odds in the past may well find that the best way to beat the cost of living crisis. The big change has taken place due to the chaos in the Conservative Party. That’s a situation that may well get worse in the coming year or so.
The plan was for new Prime Minister Liz Truss to lead the Tories into the next General Election. That’s still favoured to take place in late 2024. The government could hardly call one before that with Labour a long way ahead in the polls.
Truss has not enjoyed a good start to her time as Prime Minister. Any momentum was lost due to the death of the Queen. Rather than making statements in the House of Commons, Truss was spending more time reading lessons at memorial services.
When politics did resume, the mini-budget turned out to be a total disaster for the government. It’s now 4/1 at William Hill that the Tories have an overall majority after the next General Election.
Who will be the Conservative leader at that General Election? Bookmakers believe it is unlikely to be Liz Truss. The current Prime Minister is 5/4 at Coral to leave her job in 2023. We’re at that time when Conservative MPs will be worried stiff about the next General Election. If the mini-budget doesn’t produce results, they will want a new leader (again) fearing Truss is incapable of leading them to victory.
A problem that Liz Truss has is that she doesn’t win the support of Tory MPs in the leadership contest. More MPs supported the oh-so-quiet Rishi Sunak than Truss. It was the party members who voted her into Downing Street.
If that happens, who might become the new Prime Minister? Sunak is the favourite at odds of 4/1 at Ladbrokes. Next in the market is Kemi Badenoch who is 6/1 with Unibet. Who’s the third favourite? None other than Boris Johnson. Could the Tories be eating humble pie and vote him back into 10 Downing Street. Could they afford to again refurbish their flat and would a party be held?
It’s all a bit of a mess at the moment for the Tories. Every mistake will simply see the chances of Labour winning the next General Election improve even further. If you think they can turn the situation around though, odds of 2/1 at Vbet on the Tories winning the most seats at the next General Election might just be worth taking.
