There have been many famous sentences uttered by politicians. Add to the list, “’I am a fighter, not a quitter.” Just a day after saying that in the Commons, Liz Truss resigned as Prime Minister. Just who is going to be her replacement?
It was never going well for Liz Truss. When the monarch dies just two days after you take over, that’s not a good sign. Truss could never have imagined she’d begin her time as PM meeting the Queen and less than a month and a half later be telling the King of your intention to resign.
Could Boris Johnson be on his way back to Downing Street? He’s the third favourite in the betting behind Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt. Are the Tories desperate enough to return him to office?
Finding 100 Tory MPs to support him is his first task. There are already Tories who are threatening to leave the party if Johnson is elected their new leader. He still has the privileges committee hearing to attend and that may well go against him over claims he misled parliament.
Even more against Boris is that the country still hasn’t forgiven him for Partygate. He led the Tories to victory in 2019 but the chances are he’d struggle to do that again. Of course, there’s also the concerns over how much it might cost to refurb the Downing Street flat….again. On the evening of October 20, Boris was 4/1 at Coral to win the leadership election.
Can anyone remember what Rishi Sunak looks like? What does his voice sound like? Since losing the leadership election to Liz Truss, he’s not been seen or heard. He’s probably been too busy chuckling to himself as Truss made a right mess of being Prime Minister.
Sunak is the odds-on favourite to become the next Tory leader. He’s as short as 8/11 at Betfair but the former Chancellor was also odds-on at one stage in the last election. Tory MPs wanted him as Prime Minister but it was the party members who in their wisdom chose Truss. Many still disapprove of his part in the downfall of Boris Johnson. Have they forgiven him?
Penny Mordaunt looks a decent bet with odds of 11/4 at William Hill. Tory MPs were close to putting her in the top two during the last leadership election. With Truss out of the way, a top two finish looks likely this time around.
Only if we have just one remaining candidate will the party membership not get a vote. The Tories are rushing to decide a new leader. Well perhaps, that might give them time to vote in a fourth PM of the year if all doesn’t go well.
If the membership does get their say (they’ll moan forever if they don’t), then it will be an online vote. That’s usually the way to decide the winner of Strictly or the next one-hit wonder pop star. Perhaps this Tory leadership election could become a battle to determine who has the X in a Box Factor?
Little is certain in British politics at present. However, regardless of what the opposition parties say, a General Election is not on its way. It’s 1/2 at Paddy Power it’ll be 2024 or later when that takes place. There’s no constitutional need to go to the country until 2024, perhaps even 2025 and the current opinion polls would indicate certain defeat for the Tories if held anytime soon.
When we get a new leader, around 2% of Tory MPs will have been either the PM or Chancellor this year. It’s a poison chalice considering how far Labour are ahead in the polls. Expect more surprises (and a bit of back-stabbing perhaps) in the next week or so.
