Can Boris Survive in Downing Street?

Politics is always an interesting subject to place bets on. There are plenty of betting opportunities available and some decent odds too. Here’s a look at what is on offer at present for UK politics.

Partygate rumbles on and is likely to cause more problems in Downing Street. One set of fines has been issued to Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak and more may well be on the way.

Can Boris keep his position as Prime Minister? At a time when there is a major crisis in Eastern Europe, that may well keep him in power. At Sky Bet, it’s 13/8 that he is replaced as Prime Minister this year. It’s 10/11 though that he isn’t replaced until at least 2024.

Poor local election results, losing the Wakefield by-election and more fines will put pressure on him. Then there’s the likely inquiry into how the government handled Covid, that isn’t likely to be full of good news for Boris. You can get 7/2 at Sky Bet that he leaves Downing Street next year. That does look a good bet.

Further bad local election results and a sniff of more scandal would likely see the Tories want a change in leader. That would give the new person in charge around a year to settle in ahead of the next General Election.

When it comes to who the next Conservative leader will be, there are some very good odds available. At Paddy Power, it’s 11/2 the field with Rishi Sunak the favourite. With the recent fine and controversy over the tax affairs of his wife, you’d be brave to take that price.

Liz Truss is 6/1 with the same bookmakers. No controversy around her at present and if she does a good job as foreign secretary during the Ukraine crisis, that can only boost her chances. Truss is 5/1 at Sky Bet to be the next Prime Minister and they have Sunak at 8/1.

Their current favourite to be the next Prime Minister is Sir Keir Starmer. The Labour leader is 3/1 with Sky Bet. That would be totally scuppered if Johnson resigned before the next General Election. Can Labour get back into power though?

Despite all their problems, the Conservatives are still the favourites to win the next General Election. When will that take place? 2024 is 1/6 at Sky Bet and it could be as late as December. The chances of the Tories calling a General Election before then don’t look backable.

You can get 4/7 at Paddy Power on the Tories winning the most seats. That does look likely considering their current large majority. The same bookies have them at 15/8 to win the General Election and still have a majority. It’s 3/1 on a Conservative minority and that could be worth a bet considering they might struggle to keep all those Northern seats won in 2019.

Labour is 5/4 at Sky Bet to win the most seats. Anyone taking their 50/1 on the Liberal Democrats doing that really shouldn’t be gambling. They are low in the polls and our voting system makes that incredibly difficult. As for 150/1 on The Green Party winning the most seats, don’t even think about it. They only have one MP at present!

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