A Long Stay in Downing Street for the New PM?

A Long Stay in Downing Street for the New PM?

At last the UK has a Prime Minister, perhaps Downing Street will hold a party to celebrate. Liz Truss is in charge but will she be able to lead the Conservatives to victory at the next General Election, whenever that may be.

Britain has plenty of problems and needs a lot of support, but does it need a Truss? The new Prime Minister has already indicated that she’ll deliver a victory for the Tories in 2024. That seems to rule out any General Election before then.

It’s 1/5 at Paddy Power that’s when Britain will go to the polls. The opposition may claim that Truss doesn’t have a mandate to govern but neither did James Callaghan or Gordon Brown when taking over as Prime Minister and they didn’t call an immediate General Election.

The last General Election was in December 2019, so Truss can hold on til almost the end of 2024 to call an election and the next vote might not be until January 2025. That gives her a couple of years to try and work miracles with the economy, deal with any return of Covid, somehow sort out the NHS and avoid the kind of scandals that Boris Johnson found himself in.

Who will win the next General Election? Bookmakers realise it could be a lot closer next time around. Betfair have Labour at 10/11 to win the most seats but it’s 8/11 for the Tories at Paddy Power. It’s 50/1 on the Lib Dems at Sky Bet and 150/1 for the Green Party at Betfair. Anyone betting on either of those might as well just chuck their money down the nearest drain.

Will any party get an overall majority? The Conservatives have a healthy majority at present but can they hold on to all their seats in Northern England? If so, then Labour will not win the election. However, if those seats go back to Labour then the Tories are in for a real fight.

11/4 on them getting an overall majority is available at William Hill. Just an overall majority of 1 will see that bet be a winner and is worth taking at the moment. It’s 5/2 at Ladbrokes for Labour getting an overall majority but that price may lengthen if Truss does a decent job.

If Truss doesn’t do a decent job, who is the next Conservative leader likely to be? Kwasi Kwarteng is the 7/1 favourite at William Hill, just ahead of Kemi Badenoch who is 10/1 at bet365. Believe it or not but SBK only offers 11/1 on the next Tory leader being Boris Johnson.

It’s even money that Truss leaves her job in 2025 or later and 13/11 at SBK she exits in 2024. Now if Truss left it right up to the end of 2024 to call a General Election and lost, it might not be until 2025 that she loses her job. If that General Election was won, then the even money bet on 2025 or later looks a good one to place.

A lot is going to happen before the next General Election. This isn’t an easy time to become Prime Minister with such an economic crisis. If Truss can improve the situation though, then a long spell in Downing Street looks likely.